Managing drought risks through new water allocation outlooks

Improving water allocation outlooks to reduce uncertainty and enable irrigators to better manage their own drought risks.

Project title:
Managing drought risks through new water allocation outlooks – promoting adoption and supporting decision making

Information & objectives:
This project was identified as a priority during discussions with irrigators, water industry experts and other stakeholders during the initial round of drought consultations conducted by the Mallee Regional Innovation Centre (MRIC) as the lead for the Victoria Drought Resilience Adoption and Innovation Hub’s North-West Irrigated Horticulture Node.

It was a continuation of a proof-of-concept project conducted on the Goulburn River system, which developed a new method of producing water allocation outlooks informed by streamflow forecasts that consider current catchment conditions.

Seeing the value for water users in adapting the technique for the Murray River system, MRIC brought key organisations together to collaborate on the project.

Working with the Murray–Darling Basin Authority, Goulburn–Murray Water and the Bureau of Meteorology, University of Melbourne researchers evaluated and calibrated the new method against 10 years of records, comparing its predictions to the actual allocations.

They found the new method could accurately and reliably predict allocations over the course of an irrigation season, representing a clear advancement over the current approach to allocation outlooks.

The current method provides estimates of water allocations based on historical climate scenarios. However, the scenarios have a wide range of uncertainty, and the onus is on end-users to work out risk distributions.

Irrigators and other water users rely on allocation outlooks to make their farming and business decisions for the coming irrigation season. The new method can provide them with greater certainty about future water allocations, helping them make more informed decisions and manage drought with greater confidence.

Status:
Completed (2024)

Project lead:
Professor QJ Wang
Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Melbourne
quan.wang@unimelb.edu.au

Dr Tristan Graham

Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology
University of Melbourne
Tristan.Graham@unimelb.edu.au

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